The current protest can create real change in Iran only if the Iranians and the West pay avid attention to the root causes of 1979 Revolution.
Looking back at the root cause of the 1979 revolution they're a few main facts that jumps out which really brought the then Iranian Government down. These are:
- There culture was under attack from the West
- The West was taking their jobs and the Iranians were getting poorer
- The West was seen as the enemy by the masses
- The population was largely unskilled, more matured and whole hearted believe in the opposition
- The death of One of the Ideologue (Opposition to the Government) was blamed on the Intelligence Service SAVAK
The above factors worked to a successful revolution and bring about substantive change because:
- The government at that time was being influenced by outside factors and the importing of a culture oppose to that of an Islamic culture was being allowed.
- Foreign workers were doing Iranian jobs and taking their wealth and the citizens of Iran were driven into poverty and felt like second-class citizens. This creates a legitimate hatred and mistrust of the West and thus the West was seen as the enemy.
- The masses in Iran at the time weren't very educated and also they didn't have any access to the type of technology that is available presently.
- The death of one of the Ideologue of the revolution was blamed on the Secret Intelligent Service of the then Government.
The present Government in Iran is relying on the same tactic that brought a successful revolution in 1979 to hold onto power today. The Government that came out of the revolution hasn't been progressive and have been stuck in the old principles hoping that it would sustain them. They have continued to blame the west for their current problems hoping to ignite the same type of hatred felt toward the west in the 70's. That tactic will not work and cannot work because the political landscape is very different from that of the 70's for the following reasons:
· The government that came out of the revolution have developed a structure and philosophy that would make it difficult for the West to have any significant influence.
· The major economic drivers are controlled by the Iranians (The Government; Guardian Council)
· The masses are now highly skilled and very educated.
· The masses have access to powerful communicative technology
There is now an opportunity, an opening for Iranians to bring about substantive change or reform the way their Country is run. The economy is failing and therefore it is the Government to be blamed, there is no outside influence and no foreigners from the West doing Iranian jobs. The masses are more educated and it would be difficult for the Government to make them believe that all of Iran's problems are because of the West. The Government have found itself in such a precarious position, that it is now reverting to tactics of jailing journalists and taking to the airwaves with provocative statements trying to entice the West into responding or attacking Iran so as to blame the current crisis on the West. The West is doing the most important strategic thing by not responding to Iran's action and allowing the people of Iran to see that the present Government policies are failed policies and the only way to hold onto power is by turning the Country practically to a Communist regime.
The only remaining hope that the Iranian Government is banking on is support from Russia. They're hoping that with their oil and with Russia's appetite for more oil they will get some type of support. (False hope on their part, I'll expound on this in another article)
Substantive change might be on the brink in Iran because the Iranian regime and their philosophy have not been progressive and have stuck to what worked in 1979. The tactics that worked in 1979 to allow them into government cannot work today for them to hold onto power. The economy is failing, there isn't work for the thousands of Iranian graduates, the wealth is concentrated to just the privileged few, the families of the Guardian Council and people in power are getting richer and the masses poorer. There isn't any visible interference from the west and as such the people of Iran have come to see that the policies of their present Government is a failed one and their old tactics of blaming the west is a myth. They alone are responsible for the economic mess in Iran, their isolation from the rest of the world and the people are now demanding change. There might be more bloodshed but I believe substantive change or substantive reform will come about in Iran very soon.